Programme Updates
Moving Towards Sustainable Security
Paul Rogers
Paul Rogers has been in New Delhi as a guest of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), one of India’s leading think tanks. He was invited to discuss aspects of western security policy and sustainable security. During his visit he lectured in the Faculty of Social Sciences at Delhi University and also had a lively seminar with over a hundred postgraduate students in the School of International Studies at Jawarharlal Nehru University. Paul gave a public lecture for CSDS at the Habitat Centre. He did a 50 minute interview for the Doordarshan National TV Network and was interviewed by journalists from The Times of India, Jansatta, Dainak Bhaska, Prabhat Khabar and The Hindustan Times.
Paul was also interviewed on Canada’s CTV about reports of a new international strategy for Afghanistan which includes talking to elements of the Taliban. Given it costs $1m to keep one US soldier in Afghanistan, spending $150-$160m on dialogue is a good investment, he said. He warned about the risk of larger western forces in Afghanistan being seen as occupiers and the implications for international policy of the corruption surrounding the Karzai Government.
Sustainable security in the House of Commons
Sustainable security, a concept first pioneered by ORG, was addressed in the House of Commons debate on conflict prevention on February 9. Jo Swinson, a Liberal Democrat MP, said:
I touch on the question of climate change (...) We need to look ahead to the likely drivers of future conflicts. They will include access to energy, to water and to land that can be used for crop production. The changes likely to happen to all aspects as a result of climate change make it a priority to consider them in connection with conflict prevention. The Oxford Research Group report Sustainable Security for the 21st Century states:
"This has long-term security implications for all countries which are far more serious, lasting and destructive than those of international terrorism."
That puts the scale of the threat in stark terms. It should go hand in glove with the Government's policies on assisting with adaptation to climate change and preventing further dangerous climate change through mitigation. I hope that the FCO is working closely with the Department of Energy and Climate Change on those issues; I know that climate change is another of the Department's strategic priorities.
House of Commons Debate (video link)
Recording Casualties of Armed Conflict
The Casualties of War Need More Inquiry
The scale of the casualties in Iraq has been the subject of a recent upsurge in public attention as a result of Sir John Chilcot’s Iraq Inquiry and high profile witnesses such as Tony Blair and, on 5 March, Gordon Brown. The Iraq Body Count (IBC) project, a member organisation of ORG’s Casualty Recorders Practitioner Network, shows that as of 14 February 2010, there have been 103,997 documented violent civilian deaths in Iraq since March 2003. 258 Iraqi civilians died in violent incidents this January alone. The latest report from IBC is covered by Paul Rogers in his Monthly Briefing.
IBC’s detailed documentary evidence includes not just dates, places and numbers but also, wherever possible, names of victims. This level of detail has allowed IBC’s data to be used in various contexts, including during the Iraq Inquiry, by committee members questioning Tony Blair, and also by protestors holding ‘Naming the Dead’ ceremonies outside the Inquiry building on the same day. However, ORG is concerned that Sir John Chilcot has until now given no indication that his Inquiry will give Iraqi casualties the same attention it has devoted to the events in Westminster and Washington in 2002 and early 2003. But if ‘lesson-learning’ is, as claimed, the purpose of the Inquiry, then Sir John must ensure that it does so.
ORG believes that the reality of conflict casualties deserves dedicated and careful analysis, allowing it to play its proper role in policy making. This is for sound humanitarian, practical, and moral reasons. ORG is providing input into a high-level conference on armed violence and the Millennium Development Goals to be held on 21 - 22 April 2010 in Oslo.
This is part of a move to put reduction of armed violence high on the international agenda. The Geneva Declaration on Armed Violence and Development (7 June 2006) states that “living free from the threat of armed violence is a basic human need”. It has now been endorsed by more than 90 states.
A number of leading Governments are now supporting the need for accurate monitoring. Micheline Calmy-Rey, the Head of the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs, has said that “Switzerland recognizes that effective prevention and reduction of armed violence requires strong political commitment to enhance national and local data collection, develop evidence-based programmes, invest in personnel, and learn from good practice.”
ORG has initiated a programme to promote the systematic and detailed recording of casualties of conflicts as an international norm. It is doing this by identifying and promoting good practice, and continuing to bring the issue onto the agenda of state and inter-state organisations. We will provide more news on this work and the results of the Oslo meeting in our newsletters.
You can read more information here. If you would like to contribute to ORG’s work on casualty recording, please email us at rcac@oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk.
Gabrielle Rifkind has recently returned from Israel, where she met with local Israeli partners of the Israeli Strategic Forum and attended the Herzliya 2010 conference. She also had meetings with some of the leaders of the settler movements, as part of a project which will include a report, looking at the incentives to encourage the settlers to move back within 1967 borders. This is a crucial obstacle to the current peace process. She also went to the West Bank to see some of Prime Minister Salam Fayyad’s state-building initiatives.
Salman Shaikh, who we hope will lead a major project on ‘state-building and national dialogues’, has been in the Middle East to meet PM Salam Fayyad to discuss the state-building project and possible links with the Islamic movement. Shaikh has also been in Lebanon and Qatar to build relationships for this initiative. Khaled Hroub has been in Ramallah and Amman for consultations on the Palestinian Study Group project he is leading on for ORG.
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